Kárpát-medencei hőstressz-előrejelzési rendszer

Abstract

Summary Background: The global climate change has numerous negative effects on human and animal health. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that – beside the spatial distribution changes of vector-borne infections – one of the most threatening consequences of global warming on the health is the increased occurrence of heat stressed time periods. To miti gate the influence of heat stress on animal health and production the first step is to get data about the thermal environment of the animals. Objectives: Present work was performed to develop a web based heat stress forecast system supporting the practitioner colleagues by information to ease the negative effects of thermal environment on animal production. Materials and methods: An internet available system was developed to pro duce heat forecast maps for the Carpathian Basin. The risk maps represent the potential heat stress for pigs and dairy cows based on the species specific Tem perature Humidity Indices (THI) and Livestock Weather Safety Index (LWSI) cat egories. The atmospheric parameters needed to calculate These are obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS) provided by National Oceanic and Atmos pheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA. The original 0.5ºx0.5º spatial resolution of the THIs are smoothed by the method thin plate spline regression. The maps are generated for six-day length period day by day. All calculations and statis tical procedures were coded in R-language. The web site was developed in the Django Framework (www.djangoproject.com). Results and Discussion: The result of the presented development is a web based heat stress forecast system. By its information the system may help the user in the mitigation of the effects of expected heat waves. Further develop ments could be done depending on the feedbacks by the users of the system.